As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the third consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability of the magnitude and duration of tariffs posed downside risks to growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.

Trade negotiations between Canada and the United States are ongoing, and US trade policy remains unpredictable.

While US tariffs are disrupting trade, Canada’s economy is showing some resilience so far. Several surveys suggest consumer and business sentiment is still low, but has improved. In the labour market, we are seeing job losses in the sectors that rely on US trade, but employment is growing in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up modestly to 6.9%.

Inflation is close to the BoC’s 2% target, but evidence of underlying inflation pressures continues. “CPI inflation has been pulled down by the elimination of the carbon tax and is just below 2%. However, a range of indicators suggests underlying inflation has increased from around 2% in the second half of last year to roughly 2½% more recently. This largely reflects an increase in prices for goods other than energy. Shelter cost inflation remains the biggest contributor to CPI inflation, but it continues to ease. Surveys indicate businesses’ inflation expectations have fallen back after rising in the first quarter, while consumers’ expectations have not come down”.

The Bank asserted today that there are reasons to think that the recent increase in underlying inflation will gradually unwind. The Canadian dollar has appreciated, which reduces import costs. Growth in unit labour costs has moderated, and the economy is in excess supply. At the same time, tariffs impose new direct costs, which will be gradually passed through to consumers. In the current tariff scenario, upside and downside pressures roughly balance out, so inflation remains close to 2%.

The central bank provided alternative scenarios for the economic outlook. In the de-escalation scenario, lower tariffs improve growth and reduce the direct cost pressures on inflation. In the escalation scenario, higher tariffs weaken the economy and increase direct cost pressures.

So far, the global economic consequences of US trade policy have been less severe than feared. US tariffs have disrupted trade in significant economies, and this is slowing global growth, but by less than many anticipated. While growth in the US economy looks to be moderating, the labour market has remained solid. And in China, lower exports to the United States have largely been replaced with stronger exports to other countries.

In Canada, we experienced robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to firms rushing to get ahead of tariffs. In the second quarter, the economy looks to have contracted, as exports to the United States fell sharply—both as payback for the pull-forward and because tariffs are dampening US demand.

The gap between the 2.75% overnight policy rate in Canada and the 4.25-4.50% policy rate in the US is historically wide. Another cause of uncertainty is the fiscal response to today’s economic challenges. The One Big Beautiful Bill has passed, and it will add roughly US$4 trillion to the already burgeoning US federal government’s red ink. This has caused a year-to-date rise in longer-term bond yields, steepening the yield curve.

The slowdown of the housing sector since Trump’s inauguration has been a substantial drain on the economy.  The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for July states that “growth in residential investment strengthens in the second half of 2025, partially due to an increase in resale activity after the steep decline in the first half of the year. Growth in residential investment is moderate over 2026 and 2027, supported by dissipating trade uncertainty and rising household incomes.”

Bottom Line

We expect the Canadian economy to post a small negative reading (-0.8%) in Q2 and (-0.3%) in Q3, bringing growth for the year to 1.2%. The next Governing Council decision date is September 17, which will give the  Bank time to assess the underlying momentum in inflation and the dampening effect of tariffs on economic activity.

If inflation slows over the next couple of months and the economy slows in Q2 and Q3 as widely expected, the Bank will likely cut rates one more time this year, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.50%, within the neutral range for monetary policy. Bay Street economists have varying views on the rate outlook (see chart above). While the Fed will hold rates steady today, despite the incredible pressure coming from the White House, the Bank of Canada could well cut rates one more time this year.

The Canadian economy refuses to buckle under the weight of tariff uncertainty and further potential tariff hikes. The Labour Force Survey, released this morning for June, showed a surprising net new job gain of 83,100 positions, the most significant number of jobs this year. A whopping 84% of the employment gain was in part-time work.

June marked the first time in five months when the economy created enough jobs to keep unemployment from rising, after months of tepid gains and losses. At the same time, Canada added a net of 143,800 jobs over the last six months, the slowest first-half year pace since 2018, excluding the pandemic, with a monthly average of 24,000 job gains.

The central bank has held interest rates at 2.75% for the past two meetings, and its path ahead will depend mainly on how the economy and inflation adapt to tariffs and trade uncertainty. While the economy is expected to slow in the second quarter, firm inflation remains a concern for policymakers, who will set rates again on July 30.

Traders in overnight swaps trimmed expectations of easing at that meeting, putting the odds of a quarter percentage point cut at about 15%, from 30% before the release.

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 years and older who are employed—increased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.9% in June. The employment rate had previously recorded a cumulative decline of 0.3 percentage points in March and April and had held steady in May.The number of employees increased in both the private (+47,000; +0.3%) and public (+23,000; +0.5%) sectors in June, while the number of self-employed workers was little changed.

The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% in May, the highest rate since September 2016 (excluding 2020 and 2021, during the pandemic). The uptick in May was the third consecutive monthly increase; since February, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points.

There were 1.6 million unemployed people in May, an increase of 13.8% (+191,000) from 12 months earlier. A smaller share of people who were unemployed in April transitioned into employment in May (22.6%), compared with one year earlier (24.0%) and compared with the pre-pandemic average for the same months in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (31.5%) (not seasonally adjusted). This indicates that people face greater difficulties finding work in the current labour market.

The average duration of unemployment has also been rising; unemployed people had spent an average of 21.8 weeks searching for work in May, up from 18.4 weeks in May 2024. Furthermore, nearly half (46.5%) of people unemployed in May 2025 had not worked in the previous 12 months or had never worked, up from 40.7% in May 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

The layoff rate—representing the proportion of people who were employed in April but became unemployed in May as a result of a layoff—was 0.6%, unchanged from May 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 6.9% in June, the first decrease since January. Before this decline, the unemployment rate had increased for three consecutive months ending in May 2025, reaching its highest level (7.0%) since September 2016 (excluding 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic).

In June, the unemployment rate among core-aged women fell 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. Among core-aged men, it was little changed at 6.1%, as the number of job searchers held steady despite the employment gains.

Notably, age 25-54 employment rose 90,600 (which is the most significant increase on record, excluding the 2020-2022 pandemic distortion), lowering their jobless rate to 5.8%, reversing May’s increase.

There were 1.6 million unemployed people in June, little changed in the month but up 128,000 (+9.0%) on a year-over-year basis.

Compared with one year earlier, long-term unemployment was up in June 2025. Over one in five unemployed people (21.8%) had been searching for work for 27 weeks or more in June, an increase from 17.7% in June 2024.

More people are employed in wholesale and retail trade, health care, and social assistance.

Employment in wholesale and retail trade increased by 34,000 (+1.1%) in June, the second consecutive monthly gain. The increase in June was concentrated in retail trade (+38,000; +1.7%). On a year-over-year basis, employment in wholesale and retail trade was up by 84,000 (+2.9%).

Employment also rose in health care and social assistance (+17,000; +0.6%) in June, the first notable change since December 2024. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in the industry grew by 78,000 (+2.8%) in June 2025.

Agriculture was the only industry with a notable employment decline (-6,000; -2.6%) in June. On a year-over-year basis, employment in agriculture was little changed. Amazingly, the manufacturing sector showed a considerable job gain in June, rising 10,500, breaking a four-month losing streak. GDP may bounce back in June, but Q2 is still tracking negative, suggesting productivity was much softer, too.

Regionally, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec accounted for the bulk of job gains, while Atlantic Canada was a soft spot. Ontario’s jobless rate slipped a tick to 7.8%, still well above the national average and the highest among the larger provinces. That comes in sharp contrast to B.C., where a significant decline in the labour force pulled the unemployment rate down 0.8 ppts to 5.6%, third lowest in the country behind Saskatchewan (4.9%) and Manitoba (5.5%).

Hours worked were solid as well,  up 0.5% m/m in June, leaving them up 1.3% annualized for the quarter.

Bottom Line

Wage inflation also continues to decelerate, providing some relief for the Bank of Canada. However, with the labour market showing some resilience, the odds of an overnight rate cut in July are minimal.

In other news, Trump Threatens 35% Tariff on Some Canadian Goods: The U.S. will put a 35% tariff on imports from Canada effective Aug. 1, President Trump announced on Thursday evening. But an exemption for goods that comply with the nations’ free-trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, would still apply, accounting for just over 90% of Canadian-US trade. A White House official said, stressing that it could change. WSJ

Barring a sharp decline in next week’s CPI data for June, which is unlikely, the strength in today’s jobs report and the recently heightened uncertainty on the trade front likely keep the BoC on the sidelines when it meets late this month.

If you’re interested in buying a vacation home, there is a lot to consider. A good first step to purchasing any vacation home is to think about your 5- and 10-year plan.

Will you get enough use out of it?

Do you have other more immediate or important financial goals?

What’s the opportunity cost?

If you’re set on the vacation home, but don’t plan on paying cash for the property, the next step will be to plan how to finance it. Here’s what to ask yourself:

• Do you have enough saved for a downpayment? A second property could need anywhere between 5-20%+ downpayment. Some factors to consider are if it’s winterized, mortgage insurance requirements in relation to the purchase price, etc.
• Can you afford the purchase? Your income will have to be such that you can take on the additional debt. Consider having a close look at your current expenses, and see how much room you have within your current situation.
• Will the location/property be eligible for financing? Remote locations or properties outside Canada may not qualify for a mortgage, so you might need to get creative.
• Will it be owner-occupied or an investment property? Depending on who lives in or uses the dwelling, there will be different mortgage and tax implications.

If you’re in a good place to move forward with purchasing a vacation home, the next step is selecting a location. A few considerations:

• Current and future development of the area
• Municipal services available
• Transportation to and from your property
• Long term property value
• Seasonal access issues

Another big factor in purchasing a vacation home is deciding what will happen to it while you’re not there. Will you rent it out? Will you have a property manager? What’s needed to keep the insurance valid on the property?

If you’re not sure about any of what you’ve just read, a great first step is to get in touch! As your mortgage broker, I can help you calculate your debt servicing ratios, determine what you’re eligible for, and come up with creative financing solutions if needed. We can look at second mortgages, reverse mortgages, and other options to get you into the property of your dreams.