The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.2% year over year in November, as core inflation continued to ease. Accelerating costs for food and some other goods were offset by slowing price growth for services.

In November, prices for services rose 2.8% year over year, compared with a 3.2% increase in October. Prices for travel tours declined 8.2% last month following a 2.6% increase in October. Monthly, these prices fell 12.0%, as lower demand for destinations in the United States put downward pressure on the index.

Prices for traveller accommodation fell to a greater extent on a year-over-year basis in November (-6.9%) than in October (-0.6%). The most significant contributor to the lower prices was Ontario (-20.2%), partially due to a base-year effect from a swift monthly increase in November 2024 (+11.0%), which coincided with a series of high-profile concerts in Toronto.

Lower prices for travel tours and traveller accommodation, in addition to slower growth for rent prices, put downward pressure on the all-items CPI.

Offsetting the slower growth in services on an annual basis were higher prices for goods, driven by increases in grocery prices and a smaller decline in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.6% for the third consecutive month.

The CPI rose 0.1% month over month in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2%.

Grocery Price Inflation Highest Since the end of 2023

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% year over year in November after increasing 3.4% in October. The increase in November was the largest since December 2023 (+4.7%). The main contributors to the acceleration in November 2025 were fresh fruit (+4.4%), led by higher prices for berries, and other food preparations (+6.6%).

In November, prices for fresh or frozen beef (+17.7%) and coffee (+27.8%) remained significant contributors to overall grocery inflation on an annual basis. Higher beef prices have been driven, in part, by lower cattle inventories in North America. Adverse weather conditions in growing regions have affected coffee prices, which have risen amid American tariffs on coffee-producing countries, contributing to higher prices for refined coffee.

On a monthly basis, grocery prices rose 1.9% in November, the largest month-over-month increase since January 2023.

Acting as a bit of a counterweight, shelter costs—the earlier inflation villain—continue to moderate. Owned accommodation expenses are now up just 1.7% y/y, the slowest pace in almost a decade amid sagging home prices. Rent inflation remains sticky, but did tick down to 4.7% y/y last month. Keep an eye on electricity prices, which have been a major issue in the US, where AI data centers consume large amounts of electricity. The cost of electricity jumped 1.5% in the month and is now up 3.4% y/y. Telephone services have also leapt recently, after falling heavily the past two years; they are now up 11.7% y/y, the fastest increase since 1982.

The good news is that inflation will average just over 2% for all of 2025, down from 2.4% last year and the lowest annual tally in five years. The less-good news is that this moderation was mainly due to the removal of the consumer carbon tax, which alone shaved about half a point off the annual average.

The main core inflation measures decelerated in November, with the BoC’s two measures both easing two ticks to 2.8% y/y (and both up just 0.1% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms). And, ex food & energy prices also rose just 0.1% m/m, cutting the annual rate three ticks to a moderate 2.4% y/y pace.

Bottom Line

This report confirms the Bank’s hold on the policy rate. Aside from food prices, inflation seems to be dissipating. The overall economy is in better-than-expected shape as the upward revisions in GDP since 2022 were largely the result of better than expected productivity growth–long a big concern for the Canadian economy.

The backdrop of better growth and lower inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold for most of 2026, as the next move in rates is likely to be a hike, but not until late next year. In the meantime, the biggest loser in the past year has been the housing market.

Today’s release of existing home sales by the Canadian Real Estate Association suggests particularly weak activity in Ontario, the region hardest hit by the tariff uncertainty. A cautious Bank of Canada will monitor the effect of rapidly rising food prices on inflation expectations. With any luck at all, core inflation will continue to decelerate, keeping the Bank on the sidelines for much of next year.

Hopefully, greater clarity on the Canada-Mexico-US agreement will be forthcoming in the New Year. Reduced uncertainty is the key ingredient required for a rebound in housing activity, particularly in the regions of Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by the tariffs.

Today, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just above 2% and core inflation between 2.5% and 3%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight rate as “about right.”

According to the press release, “The Bank expects final domestic demand to grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility.”

In the United States, economic growth is supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75% as President Trump lobbies Chair Jay Powell for more dramatic rate cuts.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has shown its willingness to bolster the Canadian economy amid unprecedented trade uncertainty. At the same time, Canada is working hard to establish alternative trade partners. Even the vast Chinese market cannot replace the US in terms of proximity and cost-effectiveness, given the high transport costs. China has stepped up its purchases of Canadian oil to record levels. There is no market the size of the US market to replace exports of steel and aluminum.

The US will also suffer economic impacts from withdrawing from the Canada-US-Mexico free trade deal. A renegotiation of the contract is likely to come before the end of next year. As of now, the US is signalling their desire to exit the agreement. We can only hope that cooler heads will prevail.

These are challenging times, the surprisingly strong economic data notwithstanding. Consumer and business confidence is down, and the housing market is still weak, especially in the Greater Goldeen Horseshoe.

In this environment, market-driven interest rates have risen sharply. The 5-year bond yield is once again attempting to break through 3%. The 2-year bond at 2.67% is well above the overnight rate, and the Canadian dollar is rising. Lenders have recently increased fixed mortgage rates, which will be more popular if people generally expect rates to rise.

The key to the outlook is the continuation of CUSMA. We will likely suffer several more months of uncertainty before we know the fate of the trade agreement.

GDP in Canada expanded at an annualized 2.6% pace in the third quarter, rebounding from a revised 1.8% drop in the previous period and well above forecasts of 0.5%. It is the largest increase in GDP this year, with imports sinking 8.6% while exports rose 0.7%. Also, investment surged 2.3%, mostly in residential resales (6.7%). Government investment expenditures were another major contributor to the surprising gain, as Ottawa’s purchases of River-class destroyers led government capital spending to rise by 12.2%, while household spending declined by 0.4%.

The Bank of Canada and a Bloomberg survey of economists forecast a 0.5% quarterly increase. Tariff uncertainty has wreaked havoc on Canadian economic activity and reduced consumer and business confidence.

Canada’s trade picture, while muddied by missing data resulting from the US government shutdown, shows the country’s exports remain a long way from recovery. Goods and services exports rose just 0.7% in Q3, after shrinking 25% in the second quarter as US tariffs hammered Canadian trade. Higher exports of crude oil and bitumen were insufficient to offset the losses fully.

Imports fell 8.6%, the most significant decline since 2022, as shipments of unwrought gold, silver and platinum bound for Canada declined.

At the same time, there’s plenty of evidence that the impact of the trade dispute is spreading amid elevated unemployment and fading optimism for firms and consumers. Final domestic demand fell 0.1%, and household consumption dropped 0.4%, the first decrease since 2021. The household saving rate rose slightly to 4.7%.

Business activity remained weak. Private investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment fell for the second consecutive quarter, down -4.5% at an annualized rate. Clearly, Canada is not experiencing the AI investment boom in data centers and high-powered chips so dominant in the US. Firms also drew down their inventory stockpiles between July and September amid widespread business pessimism, with investment in inventories falling $3.95 billion.

Bottom Line

The better-than-expected Q3 gain will not be sustained in Q4, as Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for October showed industrial gross domestic product fell at a -0.3% monthly pace.

The current overnight policy rate of 2.25% remains stimulative, but until the likely outcome of trade negotiations with the US is resolved, Canada’s economy will be on shaky ground. It is unclear whether the Canada-US-Mexico free trade agreement will be extended beyond this year. If not, Canada will be in for a significant trade policy redo as it searches for replacement markets for Canadian exports.