| However, when the newly inaugurated US president began to threaten Canada with 25% tariffs at the end of January, home sales slowed markedly. However, challenges such as global market volatility and inflationary pressures could temper this growth.
The Bank of Canada will maintain its current monetary policy stance, carefully balancing interest rates to manage inflation while supporting economic activity. The housing market remains a key area of focus, with efforts to address affordability and supply constraints continuing to be critical. Immigration is slated to slow this year, particularly for non-permanent residents, which will ease the housing shortage. Rents have fallen sharply in recent months.
Rising costs, labour shortages, and potential import tariffs on building materials could hinder construction activity.
Tariff threats are real and unnerving. Exports account for roughly a third of Canadian economic activity. Canada sends 75% of its exports to the US, led by energy, automobiles, and metals. Threatened attacks on these trade flows might initially spill into higher prices. Still, the primary impact would be to slow economic activity and increase unemployment, already at 6.6%, up from a cycle low of 4.8% in July 2022. In contrast, the US jobless rate is a mere 4.0% and GDP growth is a lot stronger than in Canada despite double the central bank rate cuts than south of the border.
In the event of a trade war, interest rates are more likely to fall as the BoC attempts to backstop the economy. This would decrease mortgage rates, with floating rates falling more than fixed-rate loans. About 1.2 million mortgages will renew this year, most of them at a higher rate, said real estate company Royal LePage in a report out this morning.
Almost 30% of those homeowners said they would choose a variable rate on renewal, up from 24% now on a floating rate. Sixty-six percent said they would renew on a fixed-rate loan, down from 75% now locked in.
Of those who expect their monthly mortgage payment to rise upon renewal this year, 81% said the increase would put a financial strain on their household.
There remains a good chance that Canada could avert a trade war. We’ve already taken action to tighten our border. The US could not easily replace the oil, hydroelectricity power, autos or aluminum it purchases from Canada. We are the largest export market for US products. Excluding oil exports, the US has a trade surplus with Canada. Revisions to the US, Canada, and Mexico trade deal, slated for next year, could be accelerated. The US has much bigger fish to fry than trade concerns with Canada.
On balance, interest rates are likely to fall further. Government actions to improve housing affordability and pent-up housing demand bode well for a housing revival this year. Canadian inflation is under control at about 2%, boosting the chances of additional rate cuts this year. |