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30 Apr

Canadian Housing Market: What the Liberal Minority Means for You

General

Posted by: Ryan Roth

With Canada’s recent federal election resulting in a Liberal minority government, you might be asking what this means for real estate.

Liberal Housing Promises That Matter

The Liberals pledged to double housing construction to 500,000 homes annually, eliminate GST on new homes under $1M for first-time buyers, and reduce construction red tape. But remember—minority governments need cooperation to deliver.

Interest Rates Are Heading Down

The Bank of Canada’s rate sits at 2.75% (down from 4% last year), with experts predicting further cuts to around 2.25% by year-end. On a $500,000 mortgage, each 0.25% cut saves you roughly $75 monthly. Don’t expect pandemic-era rock-bottom rates, though.

Current Market Reality

The market has cooled significantly:

  • Average Canadian home price: $678,000 (down 3% year-over-year)
  • Sales volume down 8%
  • Available listings up 18%

This has created regional differences: Alberta and Saskatchewan remain seller’s markets, while Ontario and BC (especially urban areas) favor buyers.

What This Means for You

Buyers: More options and less pressure, but don’t hold your breath for massive price drops.

First-time buyers: The GST exemption could save you $40,000 on an $800,000 new build, but mortgage qualification remains strict.

Sellers: Be realistic with pricing, especially in competitive markets.

Investors: Rental demand remains strong (vacancy rates below 2% in major cities), but watch for potential new regulations.

Looking Ahead

Short-term (2025): Expect flat or slightly declining prices (around -1%).

Medium-term (2026): If rates continue dropping and the economy improves, modest growth of 3-5% is likely.

The promised housing supply increase won’t materialize overnight. Combined with economic uncertainties (including U.S. trade tensions), we’re looking at a measured, region-specific market recovery.

My advice? This transitional market offers opportunities for well-prepared buyers and realistic sellers. Let’s talk about how these changes affect your specific situation.

Need personalized mortgage advice in this changing market? Contact me for more info.