Today’s Labour Force Survey showed considerable weakness last month, even before the Gulf War took hold of the global economy. Employment fell by 83,400 jobs after edging down in January (-25,000; -0.1%). This is the largest decline in employment in more than four years. On a year-over-year basis, employment was little changed in February 2026. In February, the […]

Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which was partially offset by increases in household spending, exports, and government capital spending. Economists surveyed by […]

Last weeks release of January housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market frozen solid by the record winter storms. Both home sales and prices continued their downward trend, but have yet to attract the beleaguered first-time homebuyer. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell 5.8% […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December. The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, with a larger decline in January than in December. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.0% in January, matching the December increase. Indexes with year-over-year movements impacted by […]

Last Friday’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for January was weaker than expected. Employment declined by 24,800 (-0.1%), and the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. This followed only a small gain in December and was the first decline in the employment rate since August 2025. In January, a decrease in part-time employment (-70,000; […]

Last week, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just above 2% and core inflation falling to 2.5%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 2.2% increase in the prior two months. The year-over-year acceleration in the all-items CPI was driven by the temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break that began on December 14, 2024. This resulted in monthly declines for the exempt goods and services, which have now […]

Today’s release of December housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the market ended 2025 with declining sales and prices due to ongoing economic uncertainty. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined 2.7% m/m in December. On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units last year, a 1.9% decrease […]

Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for December was weaker than expected. Employment was little changed (+8200; 0.0%), and the employment rate held steady at 60.9%. This followed three consecutive monthly increases. The jobless rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, as more people searched for work. The increase in the unemployment rate in December partially […]

The November housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed that national home sales fell year over year, as both month-over-month new listings and the Home Price Index showed prices declined once again. Over the past month, the consensus for Canada’s economic outlook has shifted.  It is now widely believed that the Bank […]