The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.2% year over year in November, as core inflation continued to ease. Accelerating costs for food and some other goods were offset by slowing price growth for services.

In November, prices for services rose 2.8% year over year, compared with a 3.2% increase in October. Prices for travel tours declined 8.2% last month following a 2.6% increase in October. Monthly, these prices fell 12.0%, as lower demand for destinations in the United States put downward pressure on the index.

Prices for traveller accommodation fell to a greater extent on a year-over-year basis in November (-6.9%) than in October (-0.6%). The most significant contributor to the lower prices was Ontario (-20.2%), partially due to a base-year effect from a swift monthly increase in November 2024 (+11.0%), which coincided with a series of high-profile concerts in Toronto.

Lower prices for travel tours and traveller accommodation, in addition to slower growth for rent prices, put downward pressure on the all-items CPI.

Offsetting the slower growth in services on an annual basis were higher prices for goods, driven by increases in grocery prices and a smaller decline in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.6% for the third consecutive month.

The CPI rose 0.1% month over month in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2%.

Grocery Price Inflation Highest Since the end of 2023

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% year over year in November after increasing 3.4% in October. The increase in November was the largest since December 2023 (+4.7%). The main contributors to the acceleration in November 2025 were fresh fruit (+4.4%), led by higher prices for berries, and other food preparations (+6.6%).

In November, prices for fresh or frozen beef (+17.7%) and coffee (+27.8%) remained significant contributors to overall grocery inflation on an annual basis. Higher beef prices have been driven, in part, by lower cattle inventories in North America. Adverse weather conditions in growing regions have affected coffee prices, which have risen amid American tariffs on coffee-producing countries, contributing to higher prices for refined coffee.

On a monthly basis, grocery prices rose 1.9% in November, the largest month-over-month increase since January 2023.

Acting as a bit of a counterweight, shelter costs—the earlier inflation villain—continue to moderate. Owned accommodation expenses are now up just 1.7% y/y, the slowest pace in almost a decade amid sagging home prices. Rent inflation remains sticky, but did tick down to 4.7% y/y last month. Keep an eye on electricity prices, which have been a major issue in the US, where AI data centers consume large amounts of electricity. The cost of electricity jumped 1.5% in the month and is now up 3.4% y/y. Telephone services have also leapt recently, after falling heavily the past two years; they are now up 11.7% y/y, the fastest increase since 1982.

The good news is that inflation will average just over 2% for all of 2025, down from 2.4% last year and the lowest annual tally in five years. The less-good news is that this moderation was mainly due to the removal of the consumer carbon tax, which alone shaved about half a point off the annual average.

The main core inflation measures decelerated in November, with the BoC’s two measures both easing two ticks to 2.8% y/y (and both up just 0.1% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms). And, ex food & energy prices also rose just 0.1% m/m, cutting the annual rate three ticks to a moderate 2.4% y/y pace.

Bottom Line

This report confirms the Bank’s hold on the policy rate. Aside from food prices, inflation seems to be dissipating. The overall economy is in better-than-expected shape as the upward revisions in GDP since 2022 were largely the result of better than expected productivity growth–long a big concern for the Canadian economy.

The backdrop of better growth and lower inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold for most of 2026, as the next move in rates is likely to be a hike, but not until late next year. In the meantime, the biggest loser in the past year has been the housing market.

Today’s release of existing home sales by the Canadian Real Estate Association suggests particularly weak activity in Ontario, the region hardest hit by the tariff uncertainty. A cautious Bank of Canada will monitor the effect of rapidly rising food prices on inflation expectations. With any luck at all, core inflation will continue to decelerate, keeping the Bank on the sidelines for much of next year.

Hopefully, greater clarity on the Canada-Mexico-US agreement will be forthcoming in the New Year. Reduced uncertainty is the key ingredient required for a rebound in housing activity, particularly in the regions of Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by the tariffs.

Today, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just above 2% and core inflation between 2.5% and 3%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight rate as “about right.”

According to the press release, “The Bank expects final domestic demand to grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility.”

In the United States, economic growth is supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75% as President Trump lobbies Chair Jay Powell for more dramatic rate cuts.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has shown its willingness to bolster the Canadian economy amid unprecedented trade uncertainty. At the same time, Canada is working hard to establish alternative trade partners. Even the vast Chinese market cannot replace the US in terms of proximity and cost-effectiveness, given the high transport costs. China has stepped up its purchases of Canadian oil to record levels. There is no market the size of the US market to replace exports of steel and aluminum.

The US will also suffer economic impacts from withdrawing from the Canada-US-Mexico free trade deal. A renegotiation of the contract is likely to come before the end of next year. As of now, the US is signalling their desire to exit the agreement. We can only hope that cooler heads will prevail.

These are challenging times, the surprisingly strong economic data notwithstanding. Consumer and business confidence is down, and the housing market is still weak, especially in the Greater Goldeen Horseshoe.

In this environment, market-driven interest rates have risen sharply. The 5-year bond yield is once again attempting to break through 3%. The 2-year bond at 2.67% is well above the overnight rate, and the Canadian dollar is rising. Lenders have recently increased fixed mortgage rates, which will be more popular if people generally expect rates to rise.

The key to the outlook is the continuation of CUSMA. We will likely suffer several more months of uncertainty before we know the fate of the trade agreement.

GDP in Canada expanded at an annualized 2.6% pace in the third quarter, rebounding from a revised 1.8% drop in the previous period and well above forecasts of 0.5%. It is the largest increase in GDP this year, with imports sinking 8.6% while exports rose 0.7%. Also, investment surged 2.3%, mostly in residential resales (6.7%). Government investment expenditures were another major contributor to the surprising gain, as Ottawa’s purchases of River-class destroyers led government capital spending to rise by 12.2%, while household spending declined by 0.4%.

The Bank of Canada and a Bloomberg survey of economists forecast a 0.5% quarterly increase. Tariff uncertainty has wreaked havoc on Canadian economic activity and reduced consumer and business confidence.

Canada’s trade picture, while muddied by missing data resulting from the US government shutdown, shows the country’s exports remain a long way from recovery. Goods and services exports rose just 0.7% in Q3, after shrinking 25% in the second quarter as US tariffs hammered Canadian trade. Higher exports of crude oil and bitumen were insufficient to offset the losses fully.

Imports fell 8.6%, the most significant decline since 2022, as shipments of unwrought gold, silver and platinum bound for Canada declined.

At the same time, there’s plenty of evidence that the impact of the trade dispute is spreading amid elevated unemployment and fading optimism for firms and consumers. Final domestic demand fell 0.1%, and household consumption dropped 0.4%, the first decrease since 2021. The household saving rate rose slightly to 4.7%.

Business activity remained weak. Private investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment fell for the second consecutive quarter, down -4.5% at an annualized rate. Clearly, Canada is not experiencing the AI investment boom in data centers and high-powered chips so dominant in the US. Firms also drew down their inventory stockpiles between July and September amid widespread business pessimism, with investment in inventories falling $3.95 billion.

Bottom Line

The better-than-expected Q3 gain will not be sustained in Q4, as Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for October showed industrial gross domestic product fell at a -0.3% monthly pace.

The current overnight policy rate of 2.25% remains stimulative, but until the likely outcome of trade negotiations with the US is resolved, Canada’s economy will be on shaky ground. It is unclear whether the Canada-US-Mexico free trade agreement will be extended beyond this year. If not, Canada will be in for a significant trade policy redo as it searches for replacement markets for Canadian exports.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in October, down from 2.4% in September. The all-items CPI decelerated largely due to gasoline prices, which fell at a faster year-over-year pace in October (-9.4%) than in September (-4.1%). Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.6% in October, matching the September increase. This was not enough of a decline to move the Bank of Canada off the sidelines, particularly given the recent strength in manufacturing sales, which surged 3.3% in September (estimated at 2.7%). Wholesale trade also surprised to the upside, 0.6% (estimated at 0.0%).

Slower growth in grocery prices further contributed to the CPI’s deceleration in October, which was moderated by surging cellular phone plan prices. Though grocery prices decelerated in October, prices remained elevated and have exceeded overall inflation for nine consecutive months.

Consumers paid more year over year in October for homeowners’ and mortgage insurance (+6.8%) and passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+7.3%). Among the provinces, prices rose the most in Alberta for both measures, with a 13.7% increase in homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance and a 17.8% increase in passenger vehicle insurance premiums.

Since October 2020, homeowners’ insurance and mortgage insurance prices have risen 38.9% nationally, while passenger vehicle insurance prices have risen 18.9%.

The index for property taxes and other special charges, priced annually in October, rose 5.6% year over year, down from 6.0% in 2024.

The CPI rose 0.2% month over month in October. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.1%.
In October, both the CPI median and the CPI trimmed mean came in cooler than economists had expected. The average of these metrics was 2.95% in October.

The old measure of core—prices excluding food and energy—rose 0.3% m/m on an adjusted basis, boosting the yearly rate three full ticks to 2.7% y/y. A pop in cellular services was a significant driver there; in fact, the 7.9% y/y rise in all telephone services was the largest yearly increase since 1982. Still, a pullback in grocery prices, perhaps in part due to the rollback of retaliatory tariffs, helped moderate the Bank of Canada’s core measures. Median prices edged up just 0.1% m/m (s.a.), trimming the annual rate to 2.9%, while trim eased a tick to 3.0% y/y.

Rent perked up again to 5.2% y/y (from 4.8%), and remains the single most significant driver of inflation due to its heavy weight in the index.

Bottom Line

This report does little to change the BoC’s view that underlying inflation remains close to 2-1/2%; but, if anything, most underlying metrics have been stuck a bit above that, or have just crept up there. In other words, this report is just another reason to believe the Bank is moving to the sidelines in December

Today’s Labour Force Survey for October showed a stronger-than-expected net employment gain of 66,600, on the heels of September’s upside surprise. Cumulative gains in September and October (+127,000; +0.6%) have offset cumulative declines observed in July and August (-106,000; -0.5%).

Even more unexpected was the dip in the jobless rate from 7.1% in August and September to 6.9% last month. The Bank of Canada had already suggested that the overnight policy rate, at 2.25%, was low enough to spur growth and mute inflation.

The employment rate rose to 60.8%. The employment rate in October was unchanged year over year but remained below the recent high of 61.1% recorded in January and February 2025.

There were more people working in wholesale and retail trade (+41,000; +1.4%), transportation and warehousing (+30,000; +2.8%), information, culture, and recreation (+25,000; +3.0%), and utilities (+7,600; +4.6%). On the other hand, employment in construction declined by 15,000 (-0.9%).

Employment increased in Ontario (+55,000; +0.7%) and in Newfoundland and Labrador (+4,400; +1.8%), while it declined in Nova Scotia (-4,400; -0.8%) and Manitoba (-4,000; -0.5%).

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.5% (+$1.27 to $37.06) on a year-over-year basis in October, following growth of 3.3% in September (not seasonally adjusted).

The employment increase in October was driven by part-time work (+85,000; +2.3%). This follows an increase in full-time work in September (+106,000; +0.6%). On a year-over-year basis, employment was up in both full-time work (+199,000; +1.2%) and part-time work (+101,000; +2.7%).

Private sector employment rose by 73,000 (+0.5%) in October, the first increase since June. There was little change in the number of public sector employees or self-employed workers in October.

Despite the employment increase in October, total actual hours edged down (-0.2%) in the month as an elevated number of employees lost work hours due to labour disputes occurring during the Labour Force Survey reference week (October 12 to 18).

An estimated 87,000 employees across the provinces lost work hours due to labour disputes during this period (not seasonally adjusted). This was particularly notable in Alberta, where a teachers’ strike and a subsequent lock-out led to the closure of most elementary and secondary schools in the province.

On a year-over-year basis, total actual hours were up 0.7% in October.

Even with the latest jobs report, the Canadian economy remains vulnerable to the unsettling US attitude towards the free trade agreement, which is slated to be renegotiated by July 2026. But Governor Tiff Macklem has said that fiscal stimulus would be more effective than monetary stimulus in response to tariff-generated weakness. Judging from this week’s federal budget 2025 announcements, fiscal stimulus will take considerable time to impact the overall economy.

The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% in October. Prior to this decline, the unemployment rate had reached 7.1% in August and September, the highest level since May 2016 (excluding 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic).

Nearly one in five (19.8%) unemployed people in September had found work in October. This proportion (referred to as the job finding rate) was up from 12 months earlier (16.5%) but was lower than the average for the same months from 2017 to 2019 (24.6%) (not seasonally adjusted).

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made it clear that it will focus on inflation and will leave closing the output gap to fiscal policy. By early next year, it will be clear to the Bank of Canada that fiscal stimulus in the form of significant capital spending projects is just too slow. I expect the Bank of Canada to take the overnight rate down to 2.0% in early 2026.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9% increase in August. The acceleration in headline inflation from 1.9% in August was also larger than the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which was 2.2%.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices fell less in September (-4.1%) compared with August (-12.7%) due to a base-year effect, leading to an acceleration in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.6% in September, after increasing 2.4% in August.

A slower year-over-year decline in prices for travel tours (-1.3%) and a larger increase in prices for food purchased from stores (+4.0%) also contributed to the upward pressure in the all-items CPI in September.

The CPI rose 0.1% month over month in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4%.

Gasoline prices fell 4.1% year over year in September after a 12.7% decrease in August. The smaller year-over-year decline was primarily due to a base-year effect. In September 2024, prices fell 7.1% month over month due, in part, to lower crude oil prices amid growing concerns of weaker economic growth, particularly in China and the United States. In September 2025, gasoline prices rose 1.9% monthly following refinery disruptions and maintenance in the United States and Canada, which put upward pressure on prices.

On a year-over-year basis, prices for travel tours fell 1.3% in September following a 9.3% decline in August. Despite typically declining on a month-over-month basis in September, travel tour prices rose 4.6% in the month. This was a result of higher prices for destinations in Europe and some parts of the United States, as significant events in destination cities put upward pressure on hotel prices.

Consumers paid 4.0% more year over year for food purchased from stores in September, following a 3.5% increase in August. Faster price growth was driven by increased prices for fresh vegetables (+1.9% in September, compared with -2.0% in August) and sugar and confectionery (+9.2% in September, compared with +5.8% in August).

Year-over-year grocery price inflation has generally trended upward since its most recent low in April 2024 (+1.4%). Grocery items contributing to the general acceleration included fresh or frozen beef and coffee, both due, in part, to lower supply.

Tuition fees, priced annually in September, increased 1.7% in 2025 compared with a 1.8% increase in 2024. Aside from 2019, the 2025 increase was the smallest since 1976, when the index was unchanged (0.0%).

In 2025, students from Prince Edward Island (+4.7%) experienced the largest price increase. At the same time, students from Nova Scotia (+1.1%) and Ontario (+1.1%) had the smallest increase, coinciding with a freeze on tuition fees in both provinces.

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes recently warned that traders may be putting too much emphasis on its two “preferred” core inflation measures, the so-called trim and median gauges.

In September, both CPI-median and CPI-trim came in hotter than economists were expecting. The average of these metrics was 3.15% in September, while the three-month moving average accelerated to 2.7%.

Mendes said the central bank is weighing a broader suite of gauges that suggest underlying price pressures are closer to its 2% target.

Shelter inflation rose 2.6% on an annual basis, while CPI excluding food and energy was 2.4%. CPI excluding eight volatile components and indirect taxes was 2.8%, up from 2.6%.
CPI excluding taxes accelerated to 2.9% from 2.4% the previous month.

The share of components within the consumer price index basket that are rising 3% and higher — another key metric that policymakers are watching closely — declined slightly to 38%.

All 10 Canadian provinces saw prices rising at a faster year-over-year pace in September compared with August. Quebec experienced the steepest price growth, reaching 3.3% last month.

Rent prices also accelerated nationally to 4.8%, led by a 9.8% increase in Quebec. Slower rent price growth of 1.8% in British Columbia moderated the national increase, the report noted.

Bottom Line

The report shows that underlying price pressures remain elevated, raising questions about how quickly the central bank can proceed with rate cuts to aid the tariff-hit economy.

Still, the acceleration in headline and most core measures was driven by a gasoline price base-year effect — a possible reason for analysts to look through the print.

Traders in overnight swaps pared bets on a rate cut next week, lowering the odds to about 65% from close to 80% before the report. The loonie jumped to the day’s high against the US dollar. Canadian debt fell across the curve, with the two-year yield rising about three basis points to a session high at 2.38%.

The ongoing trade war with the US drove the Bank of Canada to lower its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5% in September, marking the first cut in six months.

During their deliberations last month, some members of its governing council argued that more support would likely be needed given the softness in the economy, notably if the labour market weakened further.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem recently described Canada’s labour market as “soft,” despite data showing the country added 60,400 jobs in September, which only partially reversed a decline of more than 100,000 positions over the previous two months.

The central bank will have to weigh recent economic weakness against concerns about firm core inflation over the past few months. The BoC will cut the overnight policy rate again by 25 bps to 2.25%, responding to its concern for the sectors hardest hit by tariffs, along with a housing market suffering from negative household psychology and overbuilding in the GTA and GVA.

Today’s release of the September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a pullback on the housing front. The number of home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems declined by 1.7% on a month-over-month basis in September 2025. Nevertheless, it was the best month of September for sales since 2021.

The slight monthly decline was the result of lower sales activity in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal, which more than offset gains in the Greater Toronto Area and Winnipeg.

“While the trend of rising sales that began earlier this year took a breather in September, activity was still running at the highest level for that month since 2021, and that was true in July and August as well, said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “With three years of pent-up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, the forecast continues to be for further upward momentum in home sales over the final quarter of the year and into 2026.”

New Listings

New supply dropped 0.8% month-over-month in September. Combined with a slightly larger decline in sales activity, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased slightly to 50.7% compared to 51.2% in August. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 199,772 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of September 2025, up 7.5% from a year earlier but very close to the long-term average for that time of the year.

“While there are more buyers in the market now than at almost any other point in the last four years, sales activity is still below average and well below where the long-term trend suggests it should be,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “As such, we expect things to continue to pick up steadily in the future.

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2025, unchanged from July and August and the lowest level since January. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was again almost unchanged (-0.1%) between August and September 2025. Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has remained mostly stable since April.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to September 2024. Based on the extent to which prices fell off beginning in the fall of 2024, look for year-over-year declines to shrink in the fourth quarter of the year.

Bottom Line

Homebuyers are responding to improving fundamentals in the Canadian housing market. Supply has risen as new listings surged until May of this year. Additionally, the national benchmark average price is 3.5% lower than it was a year earlier. That decrease was smaller than in August.

The view is nearly unanimous that the Federal Reserve will cut the overnight policy rate again by 25 basis points when it meets again on October 29.

The jury is out on the Bank of Canada’s next move. Their decision date is also October 29. While the stronger-than-expected labour market report might have dissuaded the Bank from easing, all eyes will be on the next CPI report on October 21.

With the Bank of Canada cutting the policy rate halfway through September and another 25-basis-point reduction expected by January, if not sooner, the CREA forecasts sales to rise by 7.7% in 2026.

“Interest rates were always going to be the thing that brought this thing back to life,” Cathcart said in an interview. “While that long-anticipated recovery has been delayed and dampened by trade uncertainty, the Bank of Canada is getting close to dipping out of the neutral range and into stimulative territory.

Did you know that appliances and electronics account for up to 23% of the average monthly electricity bill? The biggest culprits are your fridge (coming in at around 4% of the total bill), and your washer and dryer (coming in at around 3.5% of the total bill). We’re all looking to save some cash where we can, so let’s look at some ways to reduce that monthly energy bill from our appliances and electronics.

Option 1: Use Existing Appliances Smarter

Now I don’t recommend unplugging your fridge or wearing filthy clothes – but there are a few ways to get your appliance and electronics energy use down. First up, in warmer months, line dry your clothes to skip the dryer altogether. Next, clean your existing appliances – from the fridge coils to the lint traps, a clean machine is an efficient machine.

For your electronics, turn off your TV and computer when you’re not using them or use a smart power bar to plug them in. I know there’s plenty of us who just close the laptop at 5pm but taking that extra second to turn it off every day adds up. You can also turn down screen brightness and turn off standby modes.

Option 2: Upgrading Appliances

Looking to replace an old appliance with an energy efficient one this year? It’s a great investment in your home, even if you plan to sell in the next few years. The ROI on new appliances is 60-80% – and that doesn’t even include the cost savings you get each month on your bill. If you’re serious about an appliance upgrade, here are the best of the best Energy Star certified products in each appliance category for 2025.

One thing to look for in a new appliance is that Energy Star logo and certification. The logo is that light blue (or black) box with a white star and cursive ‘energy’. The certification is the manufacturer’s assurance that the product meets Federal Government standards for minimum energy performance standards, typically defined as 10-65% more efficient that traditional models (depending on the appliance and scenario). The program is run by Natural Resources Canada and has been in place since 2001.

What About Other Improvements?

Of course, there are many improvements you could make to your home to improve energy efficiency – from upgrading the HVAC system to installing energy efficient windows and doors. In fact, a bigger investment in these areas might be even more cost effective since heating your home accounts for the biggest portion of the average energy bill by far. For those of you who’ve gotten a CMHC insured mortgage in the past 2 years there’s an even bigger incentive to take the plunge. If you’ve upgraded your appliances in that mortgaged home, you can submit an application to the CMHC to get up to 25% of your CHMC insurance fees back! Read more details on that program or give me a call to discuss.

Buying your first home – no matter what your age – is a significant life event. It can bring up all kinds of stresses, both financially and emotionally. Being prepared for what’s to come can put your mind at ease. So, as an expert in the process, here are my best tips to minimize stress, and avoid hiccups and surprises throughout the process.

1. Set Limits: Allot a maximum amount of time for house shopping and scrolling on socials, websites, etc. per day. Don’t get overwhelmed by browsing homes for hours on end, listening to everything you hear on social media, etc.
2. Build Your Team: You’ll need a real estate agent you’re comfortable working with, a lawyer to review documents, a thorough home inspector, and a mortgage broker to get your financing in order. It’s okay to meet a few of each profession and make sure you get the right team lined up. Asking for a referral is a great way to find that perfect someone.
3. Get Pre-Qualified & Pre-Approved: Using a mortgage calculator (or downloading my app) will help you determine what mortgage payments and subsequent home shopping budget you’d qualify for. A pre-approval looks more carefully at your credit score and income, giving you an estimate what a bank would lend YOU. A mortgage broker is the perfect person to help you get it.
4. Create a Budget – And Stick to It: Once you know what your downpayment and ongoing mortgage payments will be, you’ve got to also consider the other costs of buying a home (like an inspection, moving, closing fees, legal fees, etc.). Know how much cash upfront you’ll need and don’t overspend leading up to a home purchase.
5. Spend Time in Prospective Neighbourhoods: It’ll minimize surprises about the neighbours and habits of the residents, plus you’ll get familiar with routines like school buses, playground zones, garbage days and more.
6. Lower Your Expectations: Thinking you’ll a home that’s 100% perfect, at the price you want, with no one else bidding on it… well that’s not very realistic. So set out the absolute must-haves, consider what you can compromise on, and don’t get too wrapped up in just one house. Take your time and wait for one that fits your budget and your (lowered) expectations.
7. Monotask: If you’re trying to choose between houses, calculate expenses, hire a mover, rent a carpet cleaner, and declutter your home all at once, you’ll become scattered and ineffective. Instead of multitasking and trying to get everything done at once, pick just one task at a time and work on that exclusively.
8. Enlist a Support System: If you’re feeling overwhelmed, lean on someone for support. That might be your broker if you’re confused about a process or requirement or a friend who recently bought a house to confirm their experience. It might even be your family or friends to vent or a gym buddy to get a stress-relieving workout in. Don’t ignore the stress as it can build throughout the process.

Today’s release of the August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. The number of home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems increased by 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in August 2025. It was the best August for sales since 2021, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase in activity and a cumulative 12.5% gain since March.

Unlike in recent months, when gains were led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), sales in the GTA were down slightly in August; however, this was more than offset by higher sales in Montreal, Greater Vancouver, and Ottawa.

“Activity has continued to gradually pick up steam over the last five months, but the experience from a year ago suggests that trend could accelerate this fall,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Part of what drives sales at different points in the year is the availability of a lot of fresh property listings for buyers to buy. For the fall market, that always happens right at the beginning of September, and this year was no exception. If last year is any kind of guide, then there is the potential that sales could really pick up in the next month or so depending on how many buyers are drawn off the sidelines, particularly if we see a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada.”

New Listings

“August continued the trend of rising sales in many markets across the country, and while momentum slowed compared to July, much of that is simply a reflection of the time of year,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Now that we are on the other side of Labour Day, new listings are flooding onto the market.”

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2025, the lowest level since January. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was again almost unchanged (-0.1%) between July and August 2025. Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has been mostly stable since April, when the market bottomed.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to August 2024. Based on the extent to which prices fell off beginning in the fall of 2024, look for year-over-year declines to continue to shrink in the months ahead.

Bottom Line

Homebuyers are responding to improving fundamentals in the Canadian housing market. Supply has risen as new listings surged until May of this year. Additionally, the benchmark price was $664,078, which is more than 4% lower than it was a year earlier. That decrease was smaller than in June, and the board expects year-over-year declines to continue shrinking, it stated in a press release.

The view is nearly unanimous that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will cut the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points when they meet again this Wednesday, September 17. The Canadian CPI for August will be released tomorrow, and if inflation is relatively stable or down, the Bank could continue to lower rates in October and December as well. This could be what it takes to move potential buyers off the sidelines.

While trade uncertainty is likely to persist, we can expect to see accelerated housing activity during the fall selling season, which is contrary to standard seasonal patterns.