Today’s Labour Force Survey for March was weaker than expected. Employment decreased by 33,000 (-0.2%) in March, the first decrease since January 2022. The decline in March followed little change in February and three consecutive months of growth in November, December and January, totalling 211,000 (+1.0%).

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older—fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.9% in March. This partially offsets an increase of 0.3 percentage points observed from October 2024 to January 2025.

Private sector employment fell by 48,000 (-0.3 %) in March, following little change in February and a cumulative increase of 97,000 (+0.7%) from November 2024 to January 2025. On a year-over-year basis, the number of employees in the private sector was up by 175,000 (+1.3%).

Public sector employment was little changed for a third consecutive month in March, up 92,000 (+2.1%) compared with a year earlier. Self-employment was also little changed in March, up 81,000 (+3.0%) on a year-over-year basis.

Economists expected the trade war to weigh on the Canadian labour market in March. Market participants expected zero employment gains as steel & aluminum tariffs hit jobs in the sector. While we haven’t seen broad-based layoffs yet, automaker Stellantis NV temporarily halted production at assembly plants in Windsor, ON and Mexico, laying off 3,200 people in Canada, 2,600 in Mexico and 900 at six U.S. factories. The pressure from those and broader non-USMCA-compliant tariffs was expected to drive stagnant job growth in the month. At 6.7%, the jobless rate met expectations, still two ticks shy of November’s cycle high.

Employment could experience a further downside over the coming months, depending on how the tariff backdrop evolves. Average hours worked could see an even bigger hit as work-sharing programs come into effect due to pressure on manufacturing production.

The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 6.7% in March, the first increase since November 2024. It had trended up from 5.0% in March 2023 to a recent high of 6.9% in November 2024 before falling by 0.3 percentage points from November 2024 to January 2025 in the context of robust employment growth at the end of 2024 and in early 2025.

Since March 2024, the unemployment rate has remained above its pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 6.0% (from 2017 to 2019).

In total, 1.5 million people were unemployed in March, up 36,000 (+2.5%) in the month and up 167,000 (+12.4%) year over year.

Among those unemployed in February, 14.7% became employed in March. This was lower than the corresponding proportion in March 2024 (18.6%) (not seasonally adjusted).

Long-term unemployment has also risen; the proportion of unemployed people searching for work for 27 weeks or more stood at 23.7% in March 2025, up from 18.3% in March 2024.

Total hours worked rose 0.4% in March, following a decline of 1.3% in February. On a year-over-year basis, total hours worked were up 1.2%.

Average hourly wages among employees were up 3.6% (+$1.24 to $36.05) year over year in March, following growth of 3.8% in February (not seasonally adjusted)

Wholesale and retail trade employment fell by 29,000 (-1.0 %) in March, partly offsetting an increase of 51,000 in February. On a year-over-year basis, the number of people working in wholesale and retail trade was little changed in March.

Following five months of little change, employment in information, culture, and recreation decreased by 20,000 (-2.4%) in March. Despite the decline, employment in this industry changed little on a year-over-year basis.

In March, employment also fell in agriculture (-9,300; -3.9%), while there were gains in “other services” (such as personal and repair services) (+12,000; +1.5%) and in utilities (+4,200; +2.8%).

Bottom Line

US employment data for March were also released this morning. In direct contrast to Canada, US job growth beat forecasts in March, and the unemployment rate edged up, pointing to a healthy labour market before the global economy gets hit by widespread tariffs.

Canada’s job market stalled in March, shedding the most jobs in over three years. The job loss was the first in eight months, with trade-exposed sectors driving some declines.

The threats and implementation of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s retaliating levies have weighed on the Canadian jobs market over the past two months. However, with the country dodging the latest round of so-called reciprocal tariffs this week, the Bank of Canada may have more time to weigh economic weakness against rising price pressures.

Stocks have fallen the most since March 2020–the beginning of Covid, and bonds are rallying causing market-driven interest rates to drop precipitously. The Bank of Canada meets again on April 16. The day before, Canadian inflation data for March will be released. This will be a crucial report as the central bank assesses the tug-of-war between tariff-induced inflation and unemployment. Currently, traders are betting there is only a 33% chance of a 25 bps rate cut later this month. While the BoC might take a pass this month, the coming slowdown in the Canadian economy will warrant rate cuts in June, if not sooner.

Canadian existing home sales plunged last month as tariff concerns moth-balled home buying intentions.

According to data released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, transactions fell 9.8% from January. Activity was at its lowest level since November 2023. Benchmark home prices declined 0.8%, and new listings plunged, more than reversing January’s gains. Housing continues to struggle despite the dramatic easing by the Bank of Canada, which took overnight rates down from 5% in June 2024 to 2.75% today, its lowest level since September 2022.

Were it not for the US announcement on January 20 that it would impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, housing markets would be headed into a strong Spring season. While we believe that rates will fall substantially further, a strong housing recovery awaits further clarity on the economic outlook. We have revised down our growth estimates for the first and second quarters of this year, raising the prospects for a recession.

The trade war with the US has sharply raised uncertainty. Labour markets are tightening, stocks have sold off sharply, and interest rates are falling. Tariffs will also boost inflation, causing the central bank to ease cautiously.

“The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “This is already reflected in renewed price softness, particularly in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region.”

Declines were broad-based, with sales falling in about three-quarters of all local markets and in almost all large markets. The trend was most pronounced in the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding Great Golden Horseshoe regions.

New Listings

With sales down amid a surge in new supply, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.3% compared to readings in the mid-to-high 50s in the fourth quarter of last year. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of January 2025, close to 136,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 12.7% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 160,000 listings for that time of the year.

“While we continue to anticipate a more active spring for the housing sector, the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner is a major dark cloud on the horizon,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “While uncertainty about the economy and jobs will no doubt keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, a softer pricing environment alongside lower interest rates will be an opportunity for others.”

At the end of February 2025, 146,250 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 13.1% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 174,000 listings for that time of the year.

“The uncertainty of the last few weeks seems to be causing some buyers to think twice about big financial decisions right now,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “A softer pricing environment and lower interest rates will be a buying opportunity for others.”

There were 4.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of January 2025, up from readings in the high threes in October, November, and December. The long-term average is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.5 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.8% from January to February 2025, marking the largest month-over-month decrease since December 2023.

The renewed price softening was most notable in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 1% compared to February 2024.

Bottom Line

Before the tariff threats emerged, the housing market seemed poised for a strong rebound as the spring selling season approached.

Unfortunately, the situation has only deteriorated, particularly as President Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada could become the 51st state, further angering Canadians. While the first-round effect of tariffs is higher prices as importers attempt to pass off the higher costs to consumers, second-round effects slow economic activity reflecting layoffs and business and household belt-tightening.

The Bank of Canada will no doubt come to the rescue slashing interest rates further. This is particularly important for Canada where interest-rate sensitivity is far higher than in the US.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in February, following an increase of 1.9% in January. With the federal tax break ending on February 15, the GST and HST were reapplied to eligible products. This put upward pressure on consumer prices for those items, as taxes paid by consumers are included in the CPI.

While the second straight acceleration in the headline number was expected, the pace of price gains may still surprise Bank of Canada policymakers, who cut interest rates for the seventh straight meeting. Donald Trump’s tariff threats hamper business and consumer spending. But assuming the federal sales tax break hadn’t been in place, Canadian inflation would have jumped even higher to 3% in February. This is at the upper bound of the bank’s target range, from 2.7% a month earlier. Canadian inflation has not been at or above 3% since the end of 2023.

Faster price growth was broad-based in February, the end of the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break through the month contributed notable upward pressure to prices for eligible products. Slower growth for gasoline prices (+5.1%) moderated the all-items CPI acceleration.

The CPI rose 1.1% m/m in February and 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  However, the increase exceeded the tax impact as seasonally-adjusted CPI excluding the tax impact was +0.4%. And, in case you want to pin it on food & energy, CPI excluding food, energy & taxes was +0.3%.

Gains were across the board, with the sectors impacted by the tax change seeing the most significant increase: recreation +3.4%, food +1.9%, clothing +1.6%, and alcohol +1.5% more to come next month, with the tax holiday only ending in mid-February. The headline inflation figures are subject to as much noise as we’ve seen in decades. They are poised to continue for at least another couple of months, making it very challenging to interpret the inflation data.

As a result, prices for food purchased from restaurants declined at a slower pace year over year in February (-1.4%) compared with January (-5.1%). Restaurant food prices contributed the most to the acceleration in the all-items CPI in February.

Similarly, on a yearly basis, alcoholic beverages purchased from stores declined 1.4% in February, following a 3.6% decline in January.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices decelerated, with a 5.1% increase in February following an 8.6% gain in January. Prices rose less month over month in February 2025 compared with February 2024, when higher global crude oil prices pushed up gasoline prices, leading to slower year-over-year price growth in February 2025.

Month over month, gasoline prices rose 0.6% in February. This increase was primarily related to higher refining costs amid planned refinery maintenance across North America. This offset lower crude oil prices, mainly due to increased American supply and tariff threats, contributing to slowing global growth concerns.

One notable exception to the broad-based strength was shelter, rising “just” 0.2%. That’s the smallest gain in five months, trimming the yearly pace to 4.2%, the slowest since 2021, with more downside to come. Mortgage interest costs rose a modest 0.2% for a second straight month, slicing it to +9% y/y, ending a 2½-year run of double-digit increases.

Not surprisingly, the core inflation metrics were firm as well. CPI-Trim and Median both rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates are all above 3% as well, pointing to ongoing stickiness. The breadth of inflation, which has been a focus for the Bank of Canada, also worsened with the share of items rising 3%+ increasing modestly. None of this is encouraging news for policymakers.

Bottom Line

This report will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance on easing to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Notably, the upcoming end of the carbon tax will cause inflation to drop sharply in April. However, March may see an increase in inflation as the effects of the tax holiday begin to reverse. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding inflation, which complicates the job of policymakers. We will see what April 2 brings regarding additional tariffs.

If the economic outlook did not worsen, the Bank of Canada might consider pausing after cutting rates at seven consecutive meetings. However, the Canadian economy will likely slow significantly in the coming months.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said last week the bank would “”roceed carefully””amid the tariff war. Economists are still awaiting more clarity on tariffs before firming up their expectations for the next rate decision on April 16, when policymakers will also update their forecasts. Right now, traders are betting that the BoC will hold rates steady in April, but a lot can and will happen before then.

Today’s Labour Force Survey for January surprised on the high side as businesses expanded employment despite threats of a tariff war with the US.

According to Statistics Canada, employment increased by 76,000 last month, bringing the jobless rate down to 6.6%. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a smaller rise of 25,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8%. This pattern of stronger-than-anticipated employment data has continued since November, with increases in both part-time and full-time work.

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—increased 0.1 percentage points to 61.1% in January, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. These recent increases follow a period in which employment growth had been outpaced by population growth, resulting in the employment rate declining 1.7 percentage points from April 2023 to October 2024.

Manufacturing employment rose by 33,000 (+1.8%) in January, following an increase of 17,000 (+0.9%) in December. The increase in January was concentrated in Ontario (+11,000; +1.3%), Quebec (+9,700; +1.9%), and British Columbia (+8,700; +4.9%). Despite the gains in the past two months, overall employment in manufacturing changed little year over year in January.

Employment in professional, scientific, and technical services rose in January (+22,000; +1.1%), the second increase in the past three months. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was up by 66,000 (+3.4%).

Employment gains led by manufacturing in January

Employment in construction increased by 19,000 (+1.2%) in January, building on a net increase of 47,000 (+2.9%) recorded from June to December 2024. On a year-over-year basis, employment in construction was up by 58,000 (+3.6%) in January.

Employment also increased in accommodation and food services (+15,000; +1.3%), transportation and warehousing (+13,000; +1.2%) and agriculture (+10,000; +4.4%) in January. At the same time, there were fewer people employed in “other services” (which includes personal and repair services) (-14,000; -1.8%).

The unemployment rate declined 0.1 percentage points to 6.6% in January, marking the second consecutive monthly decline from a peak of 6.9% in November 2024. The unemployment rate had previously increased 1.9 percentage points from March 2023 to November 2024, as labour market conditions cooled after a period of low unemployment rates and high job vacancies following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many unemployed people are facing continued difficulties finding employment despite recent employment growth.

Wage inflation slowed markedly in the past three months, which is welcome news for the Bank of Canada. While the strength of this report has led some to speculate that the central bank will ease less aggressively, we agree that jumbo rate cuts are a thing of the past. However, monetary policy is still overly restrictive, especially if the Trump tariff threats come to fruition.

We expect the BoC to reduce the overnight rate from 3.00% today to 2.5% in quarter-point increments by the spring season. This should significantly boost Canadian housing market activity, particularly given the recent decline in mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

Employment in manufacturing may be particularly susceptible to changes in tariffs and foreign demand. The sector has the most jobs dependent on US demand for Canadian exports,

According to the Labour Force Survey, there were 1.9 million people employed in manufacturing in January, comprising 8.9% of total employment—the fourth largest sector in Canada. As a total share of jobs, manufacturing employment has decreased over the years, particularly in the 2000s, but has been more stable since 2010.

Automotive manufacturing industries are highly integrated with US supply chains; an estimated 68.3% of jobs in these industries depend on US demand for Canadian exports. People working in automotive manufacturing (which includes motor vehicle manufacturing, motor vehicle parts manufacturing and motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing) were concentrated in Southern Ontario, particularly in the economic regions of Toronto (which accounted for 27.7% of all auto workers), Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie (19.8%) and Windsor-Sarnia (14.8%) in January. In Windsor-Sarnia, automotive manufacturing industries accounted for 38.3% of manufacturing employment and 7.3% of total employment (three-month moving averages, not seasonally adjusted).

In January 2025, a collective bargaining agreement covered over one-quarter (26.5%) of automotive manufacturing employees. In comparison, the union coverage rate in the automotive industry was nearly twice as high in January 2002 (49.9%).

In January, food manufacturing was the most significant manufacturing subsector overall, accounting for 16.4% of all manufacturing employment. It was also the largest subsector across all provinces except Ontario. This subsector relies less on foreign demand, with 28.8% of jobs dependent on US demand for Canadian exports.

The recent acceleration in job growth may not prevent the Bank of Canada from cutting interest rates further this year. The recent wave of hiring likely won’t be enough to placate concerns that a potential Canada-US trade war could plunge the economy into a recession. Still, overnight swap traders eased expectations for a cut at the March 12 meeting to about 60% from close to 80% previously. We expect another 25 bp rate cut at the March and June BoC meetings.

The data were released simultaneously with US nonfarm payrolls, which increased by 143,000 in January as the unemployment rate was 4%. The loonie reversed the day’s loss against the US dollar, trading at C$1.4300 as of 8:34 a.m. in Ottawa. Canada’s two-year yield rose some seven basis points to the session’s high of 2.65%, with Canadian debt underperforming the US and developed markets.

Heightened trade uncertainty will continue to plague Canadian business hiring and spending decisions. Consumers, as well, will likely moderate spending in response to the uncertainty.