Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate at 2.25%, the level it has held since October 2025. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. According to the Bank’s policy statement, “The continuing conflict in the Middle East […]

Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy grew at a whopping 3.3% pace in the second quarter, following an upwardly revised 0.3% in Q1 led by upward revisions to exports, particularly non-metallic minerals and energy products.  This wipes out the two quarters of negative growth that triggered recession fears. Indeed, a sharp rise […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% y/y in July, following the June gain of 2.8%. The inflation uptick was caused by higher gasoline prices and a rise in the cost of travel tours. Slowing the faster price growth was the deceleration in grocery prices. The all-items CPI excluding gasoline rose 2.2% for the third […]

Surprisingly strong employment gains in July confirm the economy is recovering from its Q4-’25 to Q1-’26 weakness. This is consistent with the strong July GDP figures, which point to 3.8% growth in the second quarter following a -1.0% dip in Q1. Canadian employment defied the bears by jumping 75,100 in July, nearly evenly split between […]

Canada’s housing market gained meaningful momentum in May and June. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up a further 0.5% on a month-over-month basis in June 2026. This builds on the 5.5% jump recorded in May and the 0.9% increase in April, placing national activity some 7% above its March level. […]

Higher gasoline prices pushed Canadian inflation to a more than two-year high, while underlying inflation pressures showed little sign of accelerating, with core measures broadly unchanged and price gains less broad-based. Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May, Statistics Canada reported Monday, marking its highest level since December 2023. The increase exceeded economists’ […]

Canada’s housing market gained meaningful momentum in May, with sales posting their strongest monthly increase of the year and leading indicators pointing to further improvement in June. After months of uncertainty, the market appears to be transitioning from stabilization to recovery as lower borrowing costs, easing energy prices, and improved affordability begin to draw buyers […]

Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering at 2.8% and core inflation falling to 2.0% (as of April data), the Governing Council sees the current […]

Canadian employment surged 87,800 in May, the strongest reading since 2024. Today’s Labour Market Survey dispels recession concerns, but leaves the Bank of Canada open to a possible rate hike later this year or next if inflation remains troubling. The Canadian economy continues to show resilience in the face of tariffs and oil price increases. […]

Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted slightly, by 0.1%, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026. That follows a 1% contraction in the fourth quarter, a downward revision from the previously reported 0.6% decrease. Higher imports of goods, particularly gold, were offset by accumulations of business […]