Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering at 2.4% and core inflation falling to 2.0%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight rate as […]

The headline inflation rate in Canada surged as expected with the War in Iran and the resulting oil price shock. The inflation rate hit 2.4%, up from 1.8% in February, tying for the highest in a year but a bit below market expectations of 2.5%. The surge reflected the initial impact of the war in the […]

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems was virtually unchanged (-0.1%) on a month-over-month basis in March 2026. “Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky […]

Confusion over a fragile ceasefire continued yesterday as Israel ramped up attacks on Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz–a key oil shipping route whose closure has sent oil prices skyrocketing in recent weeks–reportedly remained closed. Normally, the Strait accommodates roughly 130 ships a day. Tehran’s control of the Strait choked off a globally important conduit for oil and […]

Last week, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just under 2% and core inflation falling to 2.3%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight […]

Canada’s inflation rate slowed by more than expected last month, before the oil shock of the Iran war. The yearly inflation rate fell to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January, Statistics Canada reported on Monday. Justin Trudeau introduced a temporary GST/HST break on a range of goods in January 2025, which expired in mid-Feb […]

Today’s Labour Force Survey showed considerable weakness last month, even before the Gulf War took hold of the global economy. Employment fell by 83,400 jobs after edging down in January (-25,000; -0.1%). This is the largest decline in employment in more than four years. On a year-over-year basis, employment was little changed in February 2026. In February, the […]

Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which was partially offset by increases in household spending, exports, and government capital spending. Economists surveyed by […]

Last weeks release of January housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market frozen solid by the record winter storms. Both home sales and prices continued their downward trend, but have yet to attract the beleaguered first-time homebuyer. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell 5.8% […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December. The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, with a larger decline in January than in December. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.0% in January, matching the December increase. Indexes with year-over-year movements impacted by […]